Iran protests put Trump between regime change and Tehran's nuclear gambit

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

The situation in Iran has reached a critical inflection point, with the White House showing signs of preparing for potential action. President Trump acknowledged last week that Iran's government may have crossed a "red line" with its violent crackdown on demonstrators, following his earlier threats of unspecified "actions" if the regime used force against its own people.

Behind the scenes, U.S. intelligence agencies appear to be laying groundwork for possible intervention. The timing of recent statements by Reza Pahlavi, heir to Iran's former Shah dynasty, signals coordination with American officials. Pahlavi has escalated his rhetoric from offering moral support to protesters to openly calling for the regime's overthrow—a shift unlikely to have occurred without at least tacit approval from U.S. security services.

For Washington, removing Iran's government would represent a significant blow to China, particularly if the U.S. could gain influence over Iran's oil sector, similar to recent developments in Venezuela. Such an outcome would deprive Beijing of two loyal governments and two major gray-market energy sources in rapid succession.

However, the Iranian regime appears to recognize its vulnerability. In a potentially calculated move, Tehran has suddenly revived nuclear negotiations through intermediary Steve Witkoff, despite previous talks collapsing after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Both Trump and Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed renewed contact over the weekend.

The danger lies in what these negotiations may actually represent. Rather than genuine interest in a nuclear deal, Tehran appears to be employing a stalling tactic—buying time to crush the protests while the White House remains engaged in diplomatic discussions. Iran may be offering the Trump administration a "deal" similar to what Venezuela's Maduro regime presented: regime preservation in exchange for energy concessions.

This diplomatic overture puts Trump in a precarious position. The mere process of negotiations could be exploited by rival factions within his administration to constrain Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe from pursuing even limited preparatory actions in support of Iranian protesters. With the administration already focused on Venezuela, Trump faces a choice: concentrate resources on one front, or risk a broader but potentially historic strike against Chinese interests by pursuing regime change in Iran.

Administration officials familiar with the situation suggest that any negotiations initiated by Iran at this moment of maximum weakness should be viewed with extreme skepticism—less as an opportunity for diplomatic breakthrough than as a carefully designed trap to save the ayatollahs' regime.