Another unexpected US ban emerges alongside restrictions on weapon use. Serhiy Zgurets' column

On the Staff meeting

On July 16, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff held a regular meeting to discuss the situation at the front, the manning of brigades for rotation, and weapons production. Zelenskyy said that a lot of time had been devoted to equipping brigades for rotation in the most difficult areas. It was about people, weapons, military equipment and supplies. There were no more details.

Frontline situation

However, we know that the Russian forces are trying to use their advantage in manpower at the front. This advantage is leveled by Ukrainian defense, if we take into account the daily losses of manpower and equipment. But the Russians replenish the losses to continue to put pressure on Ukrainian positions. This picture is very similar in many parts of the frontline. Moreover, the invaders are now actively using aircraft with adjusted bombs, which sometimes acts as a compensator for artillery, which is now being actively destroyed by Ukrainian long-range artillery.

For example, Yuriy Fedorenko, commander of the Achilles drone battalion of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told Espreso TV channel yesterday that Russian aviation is not successful in the Kharkiv direction, but Russian units are being replenished. He hopes that Ukraine will receive permission from its Western partners to use precision weapons to strike military targets deep into Russian territory and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will finally be able to strike Russian airfields from where these planes with bombs take off.

On restrictions on weapons use by the United States

How do our partners respond to such expectations of the Ukrainian military? Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder was interviewed by Voice of America when asked whether the United States would lift restrictions, especially on ATACMS missiles, on the use of American weapons on Russian territory. The answer was not very surprising. Ryder said that if the Russians were forming troops or firing artillery or aircraft across the border, we, the Americans, recognized that fact and gave permission to the Ukrainians to return fire and to strike defensively. The Pentagon spokesperson noted that the US policy on long-range strikes has not changed because they do not want to see unintended consequences of escalation that could turn this conflict into a wider one that would go beyond Ukraine. In other words, the US position is not changing, there are no changes yet, which is disappointing on our part.

On the ban on Pentagon contractors in Ukraine

But it turns out that along with the ban on the free use of American weapons, there is another ban that was unexpected for me. It turns out that there is a ban on the work of Pentagon contractors in Ukraine. That is, we are talking about defense companies that produce American weapons that are supplied to Ukrainian defense forces. And the result of this ban is that military equipment damaged in combat, which was provided by the United States, is exported to Poland or Romania for repair. This negatively affects the pace, volume, quality of service and repair.

At the end of June, CNN reported that Joe Biden's administration had been discussing lifting the ban on the deployment of Pentagon contractors in Ukraine for several months. The goal is to simplify logistics and speed up the repair of American military equipment. CNN's government sources called this a major change in US policy toward Ukraine, aimed at ensuring military superiority over Russia. There is a prerequisite that companies that will have contracts from the Pentagon to supply weapons to Ukraine and may deploy their production or repair bases in Ukraine must submit convincing plans to the US government to reduce risks to American personnel.

As of today, the Biden administration has not yet made a decision on whether to allow American companies to operate in Ukraine. The ban is expected to be lifted by the end of the year. It is likely that such a decision will be made. In the meantime, American companies are lagging behind European companies that have more opportunities and projects in Ukraine.

On agreements between the Czech Republic and Ukraine in the defense industry

In particular, it became known that Ukraine and the Czech Republic signed two agreements. One agreement concerns the deployment of an ammunition plant in Ukraine. This is a long-standing issue, but finally, in the third year of the war, we have come to this point. The second agreement concerns the establishment of enterprises for the production of assault rifles from the Colt CZ Group in Ukraine, as well as the Czech Republic and a Ukrainian enterprise.

In fact, there are enterprises in Ukraine that produce good small arms assault weapons. In particular, the Vinnytsia-based company Fort. These weapons are used by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. But, probably, the expansion of the line of certain small arms will not be useful enough for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

On prospects for military cooperation between Poland and Ukraine

And then we will talk about the prospects of Ukrainian-Polish defense-industrial and military cooperation, which, after the signing of the agreement on security guarantees between Kyiv and Warsaw, seems to be getting a second fresh and powerful breath.

Dariusz Materniak, a Polish security expert and editor-in-chief of the Polish-Ukrainian portal polukr.net, commented on the option of bilateral solutions between Ukraine and Poland in air defense cooperation, noting that such opportunities exist. However, the problem is that Poland currently has few air defense capabilities, but there are American and several other NATO countries' air defense systems on Polish territory. Polish air defense forces are currently undergoing modernization, which will take a long time. Therefore, even if Poland wanted to launch this action, it does not yet have enough air defense equipment to carry out appropriate actions in Ukrainian airspace. But when F-16s arrive in Ukraine, there will be a very large field for cooperation. As for the participation of Polish air defense in the defense of Ukrainian skies, it is still problematic.

The Polish expert said that there was previously information about the creation of the Ukrainian Legion in Poland. There is no negative attitude in Polish society toward Ukrainian men who are in Poland. But, on the other hand, there is a discussion that these men should return to Ukraine to defend their country. The creation of such a unit in Poland is an important step to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, there are two problems with this. The first is how many men will join the ranks of the Ukrainian Legion, and the second is that training people in this unit may be problematic, as Polish training grounds are at 110% capacity. Today, both Polish and allied troops, as well as Ukrainian soldiers, are being trained in Poland. That is, there may not be enough capacity in the training centers to train the next few thousand Ukrainian soldiers.

Materniak noted that after the NATO summit in Washington, it was decided to establish a joint analytical training center between Ukraine and NATO in the Polish city of Bydgoszcz. This center is currently being set up. The experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this war will be analyzed for a long time, and it is important for the armed forces of Poland and other countries. We will be able to talk about the analytical results of this center in a year or two.