Kursk operation evolves, Neptune missile's upgrades for modern combat. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Situation at the front - Kursk direction

I'll start with the Kursk direction, where, according to the map of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff, Ukrainian troops have left Sudzha, but are holding a number of areas on Russian territory to the west and east of the Sudzha-Yunakivka-Sumy road.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 8-15, Photo: Espreso

There is a new statement by Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov, who has never commented on the fighting before, but this time he detailed the situation for a foreign publication. He repeated the theses previously voiced by the Ukrainian General Staff: “Our defense forces, we continue to conduct defensive actions, and we are keeping a significant number of kilometers of the enemy territory under control,” Umerov said. 

The Minister of Defense also noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had carried out a planned redeployment to the most favorable positions in order to maintain a certain level of readiness of forces and troops. He confirmed that, at this stage, none of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' units are surrounded, and the claims of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers being captured are false. This was stated by Umerov and echoed in reports from the General Staff.

At the same time, the Kursk operation is currently undergoing transformation. Russian forces continue to operate in small groups near the villages of Novenke and Basivka, located west of the road to Sumy. On March 17, Ukraine's Border Guard Service reported ongoing active attempts by Russian subversive reconnaissance groups to infiltrate the northern part of the Sumy region. Additionally, there are attempts by Russian forces to advance from Kurylivka in the east towards the road to Sumy. In this direction, the invading Russian troops are reportedly using both Russian and North Korean military forces.

Ukraine's task now is to prevent the Russians from advancing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will strive to maintain control over the areas of border villages, to hold the dominant heights to facilitate the withdrawal of other units and to keep a significant number of Russian troops in these areas so that they cannot be relocated to other parts of the front.

It’s likely that the Russians will attempt to create a buffer zone in this border area, but I doubt there will be a battle for Sumy. If that happens, Russian troops would face mirror challenges. When it comes to logistical issues, deploying Russian forces deep into Ukrainian territory would be extremely difficult under the fire from Ukrainian drone artillery. Additionally, there are defensive lines and numerous natural obstacles that they have already encountered. I believe Russia will struggle significantly in that area, and that’s what lies ahead for them on Ukrainian soil. I also anticipate that the Ukrainian military will continue to operate in the Kursk region for some time.

Kupiansk direction

And now to other parts of the frontline that are in the area of responsibility of Ukraine's Khortytsia troop grouping. First of all, I would like to start with the situation in the Kupiansk sector, where Russian troops have been trying to cross the Oskil River and expand their footholds for some time now, and Ukrainian troops have been preventing them.

Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for the Khortytsia operational and strategic troop grouping, reported that the situation in the Kupiansk direction remains largely unchanged. The Russians took advantage of the ice on the river to ferry their fighters, move equipment, and establish separate crossings by reinforcing the ice. With the ice now gone, they have reverted to their previous tactic of transporting manpower using small boats. This certainly complicates their logistics, but they have managed to regroup forces. Currently, there is a struggle to prevent them from establishing a bridgehead and pushing beyond the Oskil River. Meanwhile, the Russians are attempting to secure a foothold and launch an offensive southward, closer to Kupiansk.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 8-15, Photo: Espreso

The spokesperson for the Khortytsia troop grouping noted that Russian troops had previously attempted to build pontoon crossings, but these efforts proved ineffective. Even when they tried to reinforce the ice as it began to thin, they faced repeated attacks from Ukrainian FPV drones.

Pokrovsk direction

Trehubov stated that the situation in the Pokrovsk direction is currently stable, as, according to his colleagues, the numbers of Russian soldiers are “running thin” in some areas. After two months of intense assaults, the Russian attacks in the region have slightly decreased. Following effective defense efforts by the Ukrainian military and successful counterattacks near Kotlyne, the situation has partially stabilized. This marks a significant step forward, especially considering the Pokrovsk direction had been one of the most active fronts for two months. Despite the Russians deploying a massive number of personnel and tanks, they encountered strong resistance, particularly due to the effective coordination of experienced UAV units, infantry, and command, which was able to organize them into a cohesive force. As a result, the Russians are now facing problems with personnel.

Ukraine Russia war live map, March 8-15, Photo: Espreso

The spokesperson noted that while Russian forces are still trying to use armored vehicles, there are now significantly fewer of them. Interestingly, Russian armored vehicles are not being used in the traditional way. Instead of serving as breakthrough vehicles or fire support, tanks are now primarily used to transport infantry. Russian forces have lost about 300 tanks over the past two months, so the overall losses in armored vehicles can be imagined as significant. Currently, Russia is using tanks and armored vehicles cautiously, relying more on cars, motorcycles, and buggies. Ukrainian defenders, on the other hand, are heavily relying on FPV drones, remote mining, and aerial reconnaissance. Due to the dominance of drones in the air, traditional fortifications are becoming less effective. While the basic principles of fortifications have remained unchanged over the past century, the only new addition is anti-drone corridors made of anti-drone mesh, which are mainly used to protect specific objects.

New Ukrainian missile Long Neptune

Now, let's discuss Ukraine's missile weapons. On March 17, reports suggested that Russia had managed to overcome a massive fire at the Tuapse oil complex, which had been caused by a Ukrainian attack three days earlier. Several reports indicate that the refinery in the Krasnodar region was struck by Ukraine's latest missile, the Long Neptune. This missile is a modification of the R-360 cruise missile, which is part of the Neptune mobile anti-ship complex. The missile is about 5 meters long and weighs 750 kg, with 150 kg of that weight being the warhead. The range of this missile extends up to 300 km in its basic versions.

Ukraine’s Neptune missile, Photo: Defense Express

Two days ago, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the Long Neptune missile had been tested and successfully used. This new Ukrainian missile boasts an accurate strike capability and a range of 1,000 kilometers. “I thank our Ukrainian developers and the military,” Zelenskyy said, commenting on the missile's successful test and its combat use with the extended range.

Apart from the declared range of 1,000 km, other specific characteristics of the Long Neptune missile remain unknown. However, it is evident that the missile has become longer due to an enlarged fuel tank, while still being capable of launching from the same launcher as the previous version of the Neptune missile. Additionally, it is known that these missiles use a guidance system that differs from the naval version. The basic anti-ship missile was equipped with an active radar homing head, allowing it to detect a large ship independently at the final stage of its flight and launch an attack from above on the maritime target.

When we talk about the version that is used on land, in addition to the inertial system, the GPS guidance system, there is also a system designed to search for and fix the target based on a preloaded image. This ensures the required accuracy of hitting selected objects. There is also speculation that the weight of the warhead has increased to 350 kg, as noted by a number of sources.

If the weight of the warhead has indeed more than doubled and the range has tripled, this represents a significant boost in the combat capabilities of the Long Neptune missile. Such an enhancement would greatly improve its effectiveness against Russian targets.

It should be noted that the missile's body, components, and homing heads in various versions are all from Ukrainian manufacturers. At least 20 private and state-owned enterprises are involved in the production of the Neptune system and all its components. But the main thing is that, in addition to Ukrainian enterprises, we have new Ukrainian competencies.

We should express our gratitude to Oleh Korostelov, the head of the Luch Design Bureau and Ukraine's General Designer of Missile Arms, for his pivotal role in establishing a missile construction school in Ukraine. Thanks to this school, Ukraine has developed a whole line of advanced weapons designed to counter the enemy, including the Stuhna and Corsar anti-tank systems, Vilkha precision-guided missile systems, and various versions and modifications of the Neptune system. 

I’d like to remind you that we first learned about the use of the Neptune system in 2022, when two missiles were launched to sink the cruiser Moskva in the Black Sea. Now, we should anticipate the new advantages brought by the updated Neptune system, featuring a new missile designed for this type of weapon. In fact, we shouldn't focus on Tuapse, located 450 kilometers away, as this new missile has a much greater range. Regardless, there are numerous targets on Russian territory that could be targeted with this advanced weapon.

And the issue of the pace of mass production of these missiles is now coming to the fore. After all, any new weapon becomes potentially powerful when three components are met. The first is that the weapon must be produced in large quantities. Second, personnel must be able to use these weapons effectively, i.e., they must be trained and know the features of this model. The third is the massive use of targets on Russian territory. If all three components are met, then the enemy will feel the potential of such missile weapons.

We must strive to ensure that the number of missiles of the updated type produced per month is measured in at least dozens, so that it is no less than the number of missiles produced by Russia for its Kh-101 missiles. Ukrainian industry has such prospects and opportunities. I hope that the president's words about the new missile will be backed up by the serial production capabilities to produce this missile in mass quantities.