Kremlin prepares Russians for loss of initiative and Ukrainian counteroffensive - ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts note that on March 24, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that the General Staff was aware of Kyiv's preparations for the offensive and was considering its own decisions and responses to prepare for a counteroffensive by Ukraine.

In turn, according to the report, a well-known Russian milblogger said that Ukrainians are spreading disinformation about plans to attack the Belgorod region in order to draw Russian troops to the border areas and allow Ukrainian forces to attack other parts of the front.

At the same time, according to ISW, another millblogger warned that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would probably try to launch a counteroffensive before the Russian defense industry has a chance to increase production and strengthen Russia's defense capabilities.

“The wider Russian spring offensive appears to be culminating, and the Russian information space appears to be responding to the slow-down of Russian operations and potential for Ukraine to regain the initiative with substantial anxiety,” the experts said.

In addition, the Institute for the Study of War explained that the Russian military command "will need to commit a significant number of forces to the frontline to either prevent culmination or launch renewed offensive operations."