Kherson and the right bank liberation is Russian strategic defeat and not last Ukrainian victory. Serhiy Zgurets column

Transfer of Russian forces in the direction of Melitopol

Melitopol becomes new center of gravity for hostilities and center of gravity in the South.  American General Ben Hodges wrote that Ukrainian army will liberate both Melitopol and Mariupol by January, and Crimea will be liberated next. Absolutely optimistic indicator.  But an hour ago today, Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff was notified that Russian troops try to build up forces as much as possible in Melitopol area and transferring all troops from Nova Kakhovka, Tokmak there. The fog of war lingers over the battlefield. If Russian enemy continues to try to hold Melitopol, then let's remember the experience of Kherson, which they defended and then quickly fled. We discussed the statements of Konashenko and Shoigu that all Russian weapons and equipment were withdrawn to the left bank - we see that this is not true. Situation near Chornobayivka shows that significant amount of equipment has been left, in particular new samples, among which there are unique items. Russian army continues to surprise us with various incidents on the battlefield.

Russian troops in Belarus

So, Ukraine began to build a wall on the border with Belarus. Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Deputy Chairman of Ukrainian President's Office, reported and published a video that concrete wall is being built on the border of Volyn region with Belarus. It is about the fact that concrete wall will be along the entire length of border with Belarusians. I think this is not an exaggeration. Ukrainian border with this uncertain state is over 1,000 km, and there are swamps and other areas where wall is unnecessary. From the point of view of defense, this element will have a profit, because Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff reported that Russian Federation and Belarus continue to deploy joint grouping of troops, which they then can involve in Volyn and Polissya directions. But in order to prepare such group, Russian troops need at least 2-4 months, depending on the situation that is happening there now. And now there are 9,000 Russian troops in Belarus - they are mobilized from the 2nd motorized rifle division of the 1st tank army, which suffered from Ukrainian actions near Kyiv and after active offensive in Kherson region. Now another warehouse is being prepared for combat disposal. A small amount of equipment was transferred from Russian Federation and Belarus: 53 tanks, 25 BMPs and a few other models. This allows Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff to say that there are no sufficient signs of preparation of full-fledged offensive groups. Belarus itself supplies the Russian army with ammunition, tanks, and guns. Today, analysts of the "Belarusian Grove" project reported that the Russian Federation uses Il-76 planes to transfer missiles to the S-300 complex to the Rostov region. The information is not confirmed. We are talking about 64 missiles — this, in my opinion, is an insignificant number, because conclusions of Ukrainian intelligence say that Russian forces have at least 7,000 missiles up to S-300. Most likely, a small amount is being transferred to reduce ammo haul. At the same time, the Russian Federation actively uses airfields and training grounds in Belarus. Today we experienced several air raid alarms, because Russia raised MiG-31 fighters equipped with Kinzhal missiles in Belarus. There is confirmation that Belarus has three MiG-31-Ka fighters capable of carrying Kinzhal missiles with a range of 3,000 km. This is the threat that remains and affects the security of Ukraine.

There are no changes in Belarusian army. Six battalions sit on the border with Ukraine.  However, Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff made an appeal to Belarusian military that if they are forced to fight against Ukraine and they cannot refuse, after crossing the border they must raise their flags in units and wait for the command of Ukrainian Armed Forces, or they will die. I think that the words of Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff were heard in Belarus.

Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kherson region and liberation of the right bank

At this time, I wanted to talk about resonance of Ukrainian offensive in Kherson region, where we liberated the right bank. Military expert Mykhailo Samus said this development was determined by actions of Ukrainian Armed Forces and inability of Russian Federation to create offensive groups on the right bank of Dnipro river in order to advance to Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and beyond. Their group lost its military meaning and had only a political one, because Vladimir Putin held "referendums" and annexed these territories, so it was very important for him that the right bank and regional center were formally under the control of Russian Federation. From a military point of view, liberation of the right bank greatly changes distribution of forces at the front, because now the front will be stabilized along Dnipro river. This means that there is no direct threat to Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kryvyi Rih, if we talk about advance of Russian Federation to the North. Significant Ukrainian forces may be redirected in other directions. This can change the balance of forces in Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk and other areas of the eastern front, where additional forces can change situation. The importance of fixing Dnipro front and redistribution of Ukrainian forces will significantly affect further development of situation on the front in strategic sense.

According to Mykhailo Samus, decision to retreat was made personally by Vladimir Putin. Perhaps he was informed a long time ago about catastrophic situation for Russian Federation on the right bank: lack of logistics, difficult supply of manpower and resources. If Surovikin and Shoigu promised him something, it hardly sounded convincing, because now there are no visible changes on the front or opportunities to dramatically increase the forces of the Russian Federation at the expense of mobilized, modern weapons. Situation in Belarus surprises Mykhailo Samus, because he believed that strike groups would be created there and they would try to open the northern front by mid-November in order to prevent the operation of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region. They do not succeed, and this means that Surovikin could not promise anything to Putin and that the thesis of the Russian Federation, that Ukrainian Armed Forces promised to give something in exchange for the right bank, are attempts to justify disaster in the Kherson region.

Military expert disagrees with the words of US General Mark Milley, allegedly Ukrainian army has reached its maximum and it is time to prepare for negotiations with Russian Federation. He believes that conditions are now emerging for continuation of Ukraine's offensive, and Russian Federation is looking for opportunity to stop it and get a break or start consultations in order to gather reserves in the North of Ukraine, bring more forces to Melitopol, and build more powerful defense on the left bank of Kherson region. Russian Federation has a lot of tasks that require time, and the fact that Ukraine does not give it, intensifying the offensive, is a real problem. It was a really incomprehensible thing, where everything is in favor of Ukraine. And other generals, in particular Ben Hodges, belive that Ukraine will liberate Mariupol and Melitopol by January, and then take Crimea. Ukrainian Armed Forces have prerequisites for doing this.

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

I will return to the topic of negotiations, because The Wall Street Journal comes out with an article about Sullivan, who says that Ukraine's position needs to be adjusted again, in particular on the issue of Crimea. According to Mykhailo Samus, the appearance of such statements shows that the Russian Federation is trying to influence Ukraine through the Western press. These publications are associated with the party around Putin, which, unlike Prigozhin and Kadyrov, tries to look for more pragmatic solutions. Western media also reported that Patrushev and Sullivan were discussing these situations. This may be a consequence of such communication, when Patrushev tells Sullivan that if Ukrainian Armed Forces go to Crimea, there will be severe reaction from the Russian Federation. But Russia has been sending the same signals about using nuclear weapons to destroy Ukraine and Europe's energy system since February 24, when it realized that there would be a difficult war. Now Russian Federation, Patrushev, in particular, understands that Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to liberate all territories.  Russia is trying to keep Crimea as Russian territories.  But the Ukrainian army will liberate it, because it has a plan to make a "gesture of goodwill" with Crimea as well.

Long-range anti-missile and anti-aircraft defense for Ukraine

Mykhailo Samus hopes for decision on missile defense at Ramstein meeting, longer-range air defense system. It is not yet known whether the "nasams" includes long-range missiles. The latest missile modifications for NASAMS can hit up to 120 km, and it would be nice to get them to counter ballistic missiles from Iran. He believes that it is necessary to discuss how to stop strikes by Iranian ballistic missiles at Ramstein, because Patrushev is trying to persuade Iran to put up several hundred missiles, and they are dangerous because of their number. Therefore, Ukraine needs powerful long-range air defense system. It is better to shoot down ballistic missiles in the initial area, so 20-40 km complexes will be enough. Long-range radars are needed, possibly DRLC aircraft and long-range missiles to shoot down missiles in Russian Federation or Belarus.

So, Kherson and the right bank are defeat for Russian Federation in this strategic area and not the last victory for Ukraine. It is necessary to liberate the South, Donbas and Crimea. It's hard work, but goals look achievable. This is necessary component of our existence as a nation and independent state.