Joint Russian-Belarusian drills begin — should Kyiv be worried?

According to Ukrainian political and military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, “Yesterday, August 31, the first CSTO maneuvers Interaction-2025, Search-2025, and Echelon-2025 began,” involving some 2,000 personnel from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, along with 450 pieces of equipment.

This initial phase is scheduled to end on September 6, after which the Russian-Belarusian exercises Zapad-2025 will commence on September 12. The stated purpose of these maneuvers is to test the countries’ capabilities to “ensure security” and “repel possible aggression.” However, Kovalenko notes that “it is already clear that these exercises will not pose any threat in the form of a full-scale invasion or a combined arms offensive operation.” The observer says it is impossible to create a fully capable strike force for such operations in just 12 days, and the forces currently concentrated in Belarus are incapable of mounting serious operations against Ukraine or EU countries.

As Kovalenko emphasizes, Russia is nowhere near capable of repeating an operation from Belarusian territory that could surpass the invasion of February 24, 2022, or even match it. 

On the ground along the Belarus-Ukraine border, the observer reports no significant changes in force composition or deployments. Units currently positioned include:

• 383rd airborne assault battalion of the 38th separate airborne assault brigade – Uzhovo and Pinsk, Brest region
• 5th special forces unit – Ivanovo, Brest region, and Pribolovichi, Gomel region
• 317th airborne battalion of the 103rd airborne brigade – Lelchitsy, Bragin, and Zyabrovka-2, Gomel region
• 336th rocket artillery brigade– Zyabrovka
• 51st artillery brigade – Gomel

Additionally, units of the 33rd Special Forces Brigade, the 339th Mechanized Brigade, the 355th Tank Brigade, and the 357th Brigade of the 336th Mechanized Brigade are deployed nearby.

The equipment observed in this zone, assigned to these units, includes:

• Tanks – ~30 units
• Armored vehicles – ~135 units
• Artillery systems – ~60 units
• MLRS – ~10 units

Overall, along the entire border with Ukraine, there are approximately 3,000 personnel from the 14,000-strong Belarusian army, along with 165 units of armored vehicles and 70 units of artillery. The observer notes that “to put it mildly, this is not the kind of potential needed to break through to Kyiv.”

Regarding Russian potential in Belarus, Kovalenko says that the force is largely dispersed and includes 1,450 Russian soldiers stationed at the Baranovichi radio technical node and the 43rd Vileika communications node

The observer concludes that while the exercises may generate noise in the media and online, the real threat level on the ground remains limited.