With the attack on the Odesa grain port, the Kremlin's master is trying to show his "friend Erdogan" that he does not like Ankara's educational measures and its pro-Ukrainian stance.
After Putin's refusal to extend the grain deal, the Turkish leader publicly trolled his Russian counterpart, saying that "my friend" actually wants to extend the grain deal, but "I haven't got him on the phone yet".
For the Kremlin, this statement sounded humiliating, especially after the NATO summit in Vilnius, where Erdogan declared a "new stage in relations between Turkey and the United States": Ankara unblocked Sweden's accession to the Alliance, supported Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations, and, most importantly, hinted at a partnership with the United States to politically influence the countries of the Global South - to counter China and Russia. Turkey also advised Russia to get out of Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Russians are already afraid that Ankara will form convoys to escort grain caravans and trawl the route for mine detection. "Friend Putin" is unlikely to attack Turkish (NATO) convoys, especially since "friend Erdogan" will eventually call and convince them to return to the deal”
Bild writes that Russian propagandists are feverish about Erdogan's unexpected turn towards Europe: episodes of the Horde are mentally reviving in their minds, and Russian TV hosts are talking about Ankara's intentions to seize "native Russian lands". Obviously, they are referring to the Tatar Crimea. In addition, the Kremlin openly says that Russia's blockade of the grain deal is directed exclusively against Erdogan, who "dared" to release Azov fighters bypassing the Kremlin. And the "worst": Turkey, buying Ukrainian grain at a 25% discount, has become the world's largest exporter of flour.
“Erdogan is famous for his magical influence on Russia’s bunker leader and could have long ago persuaded him to extend the deal. But he chose a confrontational model of communication. It's all about the desire to minimise Putin's totemic significance for the Global South”
Let's be honest, the term "Global South" is a modern politically correct analogue for the outdated "Third World". One of them is the pro-Russian mecca of pirates, Somalia. In the country's capital Mogadishu, after Russia's announcement of its withdrawal from the grain deal, a real panic has broken out, with people buying up food, Reuters reports. Food prices, accordingly, are rising like crazy.
The Kremlin's trick will also significantly affect other friends of the Russians - Ethiopia and Kenya, which are experiencing an incredible drought. As well as South Sudan (hello, colonisers from Wagner Group) and Yemen. The UN estimates that 400 million people are at risk from the termination of the grain deal.
Formally, Putin promised to send Russian grain for free. But the fact that Putin’s word is nothing was recently revealed by South Africa's President Ramaphosa: He frankly admitted that he was terribly afraid of Russia, because, for example, for the execution of the ICC arrest warrant and the extradition of the Fuhrer to The Hague, "friendly Russia" threatened war.
The Kremlin has analysed the entire range of its corridor thinking. It attacked Odesa's port infrastructure with missiles, then threatened to destroy any merchant ships in the Black Sea, and in the evening Putin appeared on TV and announced his wishes for the continuation of the grain deal. The bunker leader knows no other recipe for negotiation than to escalate the situation. But things had gone differently. It’s hammer time. And its name is Erdogan.
It is interesting to watch the corridor fight between the "old friends", especially knowing that the bunker man has no room for manoeuvre, because... China is also interested in the grain deal.
About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel.
The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.