Espreso. Global

ISW predicts what Xi Jinping and Putin will talk about in Moscow

18 March, 2023 Saturday

The Institute for the Study of War suggests that the talks between the leaders of Russia and China will focus on Xi Jinping's mediation in the war in Ukraine and ways to evade sanctions

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

During his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Chinese leader Xi Jinping may discuss Russia's sanctions evasion schemes over its invasion of Ukraine.

Also, during his visit to the Russian capital from March 20 to 22, the Chinese president is likely to raise the topic of Beijing's interest in mediating a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine, analysts say.

The Kremlin says that Putin and Xi plan to sign unspecified bilateral documents and discuss topical issues of comprehensive partnership between Russia and China.

"Chinese companies have reportedly sold rifles, drone parts, and equipment to Russian entities that could be used for military purposes, and Western intelligence agencies have stated that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia," the publication says.

Experts believe that Xi likely plans to discuss sanctions evasion schemes with Putin and Russian officials to support the sale and provision of Chinese equipment to Russia. 

ISW previously assessed that self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese leader signed a package of 16 agreements on March 1 that may help evade Russian sanctions by channeling Chinese products through Belarus.

"Xi also likely aims to promote Chinese efforts aiming to position China as an impartial third-party mediator for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine," the report says.

On February 24, China released a broad 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine. According to experts, Xi may seek to parlay his success in mediating the restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia into a larger effort to mediate in this war.

The report also notes that Lukashenko confirmed that Belarusian industry is supplying Russia with electronic components, potentially supporting previous ISW assessments that Belarus may assist Russia in evading Western sanctions.

On March 17, Lukashenko stated that Belarus and Russia signed an agreement on establishing a joint Belarusian-Russian center for the development and production of photomasks (an intermediate good used in the production of integrated circuits), that the two states have developed a list of critically important electronic components, and that Belarusian industry has already begun shipping unspecified microelectronics to Russian enterprises.

The ISW assessed that Belarus could facilitate Russia's evasion of sanctions and that China could covertly transfer goods and/or equipment to Russia through Belarus.

The US State Department sanctioned several additional Belarusian defense entities and tightened existing export controls to Belarus as of February 24, 2023, but these sanctions may not be comprehensive enough to prevent Belarus from sending Russia electronic components used in weapon systems and other dual use technologies, according to the publication.

Read also:
  • News
2023, Thursday
30 March
Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will not change anything 
Russia is preparing to recruit 400 thousand additional ‘volunteers’ - British Intelligence
Russian offensive on Bakhmut’s outskirts slows to near standstill. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets
US transfer $1.25 billion grant to Ukraine’s state budget
Russia's state budget is starting to crack at seams - Ukraine's diplomat Ohryzko
Russia reduces number of ships in Black Sea due to storm, weather is critical for aviation and drones - Ukraine’s Defense Forces
They are looking for guerrilla fighters: Russians announce several objects and residential buildings in Melitopol are mined 
Price civilians pay for the war - Ukrainian photographer wins World Press Photo award for his Mariupol photos 
Germany to allocate additional €12 billion for long-term military assistance to Ukraine
General Milley: Russia, China, Iran will threaten global security for years to come  
Russian Volunteer Corps shared video of operation in Bryansk region on March 2
US intends to bring Russia back into compliance with nuclear weapons treaty - State Department
About 6,000 Wagner mercenaries fight in Bakhmut, Donetsk region — General Milley
Center for Countering Disinformation publishes Russia’s fakes for March 29 
US finds "no serious violations" related to aid for Ukraine
Ukrainian Armed Forces have killed at least 172.9 thousand Russian invaders since beginning of full-scale war
Ukrainian Defense Ministry tells about Ukrainian and Russian losses on the battlefield 
Russia launches 5 missile and 25 air strikes on Ukraine, FSB carries out humiliating filtration in Crimea - General Staff 
Victorious news of 399th day of war: trap for Russian bomber, explosion in Crimea, Mi-8 helicopters from Croatia
Yevhen Hulevych from Lviv: from intellectual projects to philosophy of trenches and death near Bakhmut
Russian propaganda launches new narrative of fighting ‘Satanism’ in Ukraine
Hungary will continue to block EU sanctions on Russian nuclear energy, expand cooperation with Russia – Szijjártó
The West is about pragmatism. Therefore, do not be overly optimistic
Russia called up over 500,000 troops last year – Bloomberg
Iranian foreign minister calls for diplomatic settlement of Ukraine war at meeting with Lavrov
China may start producing ammunition for Russia and sell it through DPRK – military expert Katkov
Peskov says West's ‘hybrid war against Russia’ will last long, Ukraine responds
Analysts refute Russian claim of Ukrainian refugees raising crime rate in Poland
2023, Wednesday
29 March
Pushing Pushkin
Ukrainian war correspondents speak against restrictions on some media to report from ‘red’ zones
Russian bread factory starts producing drones for Russian military – media
Russian troops dig trenches, build fortifications in Crimea; Ukrainian Armed Forces repel 48 attacks in a day – General Staff
Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus challenges NATO – MEP Auštrevičius
Slovakia condemns Russian atrocities against women and children in Ukraine
Kvitka ‘Kasey’ Cisyk: 25 years without legendary voice of American-Ukrainian woman
US estimates Russian casualties in Ukraine at 220,000 killed and wounded 
Ukrainian guerrillas discover Russian troops, adjust fire on them
ICC to determine whether Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children is genocide – Ukrainian Ombudsman
Ukrainian marines target 8 Russian soldiers and mortar in one day
Albina Deriugina, the legend of rhythmic gymnastics, dies
More news