ISW explains importance of Russian defense breakthrough near Urozhaine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

According to experts, the three-echeloned Russian defensive line in southern Ukraine consists of a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers deep; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources.

It is assumed that the breakthrough of the defense line in several settlements could allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch operations in the areas behind the densest minefields. If the areas around the second Russian defense line are less heavily mined, then they would likely be more conducive to more rapid Ukrainian gains.

Russian forces have devoted considerable effort, resources, and personnel to hold settlements such as Robotyne and Urozhaine, so recent Ukrainian successes in these areas likely reflect a broader degradation of the Russian forces defending these settlements.

In addition, ISW estimates that Russian forces lack significant operational reserves, and the intense Russian effort to hold these settlements instead of withdrawing their forces means that Ukrainian forces have likely had to thoroughly degrade Russian units before advancing.

ISW recently observed Russian forces conduct lateral redeployments from Kherson region and possibly from the Donetsk-Zaporizhia regions border area to the Robotyne area, further suggesting that Ukrainian forces have significantly degraded the Russian troops, that have been defending in western Zaporizhia region without rotation since the start of the counteroffensive.

“The lack of Russian operational reserves means that Russian forces will have to reinforce certain areas of the front at the expense of others, likely weakening Russian defensive lines in aggregate and offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for exploitation,” the report notes.

• On August 18, it was reported that the commander of the Vostok battalion of militants operating in the occupied territory of Donetsk region, Aleksander Khodakovsky, proposed that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current front line, restoring the narrative that had been dormant since the armed rebellion of Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.