Istanbul-3 begins: Will Europe appease Putin again?

So, here’s where things stand at the start of Istanbul-3:

1. Putin avoided repeating Poroshenko’s 2019 mistake and rejected the “stadium” format — likely because in a show business setting, he would clearly lose.

2. The status of the Russian delegation has been noticeably downgraded — a clear sign of how seriously (or not) Moscow is taking the negotiations.

3. Anyone hoping for a positive turn of events and an end to the active phase of the war is a romantic — Putin has been amassing troops for the “summer campaign” for a reason.

4. For Ukraine, the key question is whether the Europeans will actually respond with sanctions — or once again decide that appeasement is cheaper than helping Ukraine.

5. How will Trump react? It seems he’ll “quietly slip into the woods” and wait for a new window of opportunity. For now, his interest in resolving the conflict appears to lie purely in the realm of PR.

6. What should Ukraine do? Obviously, listen to those who make accurate assessments and prepare for tough months ahead on the front. Support the army, stabilize the home front, donate - and above all, understand that Russia believes time is on their side. We won’t let that happen.

Let’s fight — and we will overcome.

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About the author. Victor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.