Invading Russian forces face inevitable defeat in Lyman area - ISW

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports in its September 28 report.

Expected defeat of the Russian Federation in the Lyman

 "On September 28, Russian media bloggers discussed Ukraine's achievements around the Lyman with heightened concern, suggesting that Russian forces in the area could face imminent defeat," the report says.

Analysts say that Ukrainian fighters can already strike the positions and communications that support Russian troops in Lyman.

"The collapse of the Lyman boiler will probably have serious consequences for the Russian group in the north of Donetsk and the west of Luhansk regions and may allow Ukrainian troops to threaten the Russian positions along the western border of Luhansk region and in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk region," the report says.

Experts emphasize that the Russian Ministry of Defense failed to prepare its population for the inevitable defeat in Lyman. This will probably lead to an even greater decrease in the already low morale of the citizens of Russia.

After the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, this will be another blow that will continue to destroy morale and cause panic among the Russian military.

"The angry reaction of the Russian information space probably played a role in the fact that Putin announced a partial mobilization shortly after the first large-scale counteroffensive of Ukraine, trying to strengthen the units of the Russian army," the Institute noted.

On September 28, Ukrainian troops continued to make significant progress around Lyman, advancing from the north along the Zelena Dolyna - Kolodyazi line and from the southeast in the Yampol area.

So Ukrainian Armed Forces: took control of Zelena Dolyna (15 km north of Lyman) and advanced east to take control of Kolodyazi (11 km northeast of Lyman); advanced to the southeast of Kolodyazi and are fighting on the outskirts of Torsky, only 12 km northeast of Lyman; gathered near Yampol (13 km southeast of Liman) and broke through the Russian defensive lines there to advance on Torske from the southwest.

And Ukrainian troops also attack Shandrigolovo, about 10 km northwest of Liman; have liberated Novoselyvka, south of Shandrygolovo and 10 km northwest of Liman, and are also trying to take control of the Svatove-Lyman road, which is now a critical ground line of communication (GLOC) for the Russian group in Liman.

Annexation of the occupied territories

The Kremlin may temporarily delay the announcement of the annexation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories to better prepare the Russian information space and administrative organization, although September 30 remains the most likely date for the announcement of the annexation.

Mobilized Russians to reinforce the remnants

According to ISW, Russian authorities continue to send newly mobilized and undertrained recruits to allegedly reinforce very "degraded remnants of various units," including units previously considered Russia's main combat forces.

For example, until February 24, the 1st Guards Tank Army was considered Russia's main mechanized force, and the fact that its elements are reinforced by ill-disciplined, untrained men is consistent with previous ISW estimates that even the most elite Russian units have suffered significant losses in Ukraine, and that's why they "degrade even more".

According to experts, the infusion of new mobilized forces into the elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army is unlikely to add decisive combat power to these units.