How Trump's tariffs could benefit Ukraine's standing

The international information and analytical community Resurgam discussed the issue.

Energy factor

The tariffs introduced by the world's largest economy will inevitably slow global economic activity, which will, in turn, lead to a decrease in energy demand, especially for oil. The Resurgam community predicts that, by the end of April, OPEC is expected to release its first report on the increase in oil production. Combined with the anticipated economic slowdown, this will exert downward pressure on oil prices. However, "the fall in oil prices has been restrained by threats of a military operation against Iran and a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz," Resurgam observes, adding that "over time, these political risks will become less relevant."

Geopolitical factor

Trump's policies are inadvertently pushing Europe toward greater autonomy. As tensions between the U.S. and Europe escalate, there is an increasing call within the EU for greater independence from the U.S. This, in turn, boosts Ukraine's strategic importance for Europe. In March, Ukraine was officially included in the White Paper on European Defence, which "recognizes Ukraine as an integral part of the EU security architecture." The document outlines specific measures to support Ukraine, underlining its growing geopolitical relevance.

Impact on the military-industrial complex

The growing discord between Brussels and Washington makes cooperation between Ukraine and Europe in the defense sector more attractive. European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, highlighted that Ukraine "can become a pillar of the European security system." Kubilius noted that the Ukrainian defense industry’s ability to produce weapons affordably could serve as a foundation for the development of European defense capabilities, particularly in drones and artificial intelligence. “The U.S. expressing dissatisfaction with the European Defense Fund, which prioritizes EU, including Ukrainian, manufacturers, instead of U.S. companies is quite ironic,” Resugram stated.

Economic factor

Trump's tariffs will have a relatively minimal effect on Ukraine since the rate is only 10%, the lowest possible level. Additionally, Ukraine's exports to the U.S. in 2023 amounted to only $500 million, while imports were significantly higher at $2.8 billion. Nonetheless, the intention behind the tariffs is more nuanced. "There are memes on the Internet that Trump has imposed tariffs even on penguins on deserted islands," Resurgam notes, "but the real purpose of these measures is to prevent 'legal optimization' by tariffed companies that move their registration to avoid tariffs."

Among European countries, only the UK, Ukraine, Turkey, Andorra, and Gibraltar received the minimum 10% tariff rate. If the tariffs persist, European companies might begin optimizing their legal export schemes to reduce costs. "Since significant exports from Andorra or Gibraltar would look suspicious, Ukraine could become an attractive destination for such schemes," Resurgam adds. This potential for legal optimization could be further supported by Ukraine's gradual integration with the EU and the possibility of future Eurozone membership, which would create additional incentives for European businesses to consider Ukraine as a base for "optimization" efforts.

Conclusion and U.S. strategy

In the broader context, the U.S. seems to be using its tariff policy as a tool for political and economic pressure. The likely strategy involves the following steps: announce uniform tariffs for all countries, wait for some countries to negotiate and avoid a trade war, present these negotiations as a "victory" for the U.S., put pressure on countries that retaliate with mirror measures, and ignore countries that accept the new duties without resistance. Resurgam concludes that the strategy is based on "the game of chicken" and exploiting global fears of an economic recession to force countries into trade concessions.

• U.S. President Donald Trump has announced tariffs on nearly all countries worldwide. Ukraine will face the lowest rate — 10%.