How Russia will try to cosplay Ukrainian Maidan

It is not surprising that the Russians are trying to steal something again. Appropriating, passing off as their own, and then frothing at the mouth to prove the authenticity of the stolen goods is a trait they have acquired over the centuries. So don't be surprised if something like a 'Maidan' suddenly emerges in St. Petersburg or Moscow. At least, this is already being discussed even in the State Duma of the Russian Federation, hinting at the dissatisfaction of 'patriots' with the course of the war (sorry, in the Muscovite-Putin slang, a special military operation) in Ukraine.

United Russia MP Oleg Matveychev explains that after the weakening of the positions of liberals and communists within the State Duma, the only threat to the current regime is the 'turbo-patriotic Maidan'. He says that the 'true Russians' are tired of official propaganda lies and rumors of defeat, and the so-called 'military commanders' only fuel the protest mood. According to Matveychev's opinion, as quoted by The Moscow Times, anything can become a trigger for a revolt (filigree called 'Maidan'): a new Izium or Balaklia. 

Matveychev is deliberately stirring up passions, since it is quite clear that Putin allows the so-called 'creativity' of the military commanders (Pegov, Kots, Sladkov, Vladlen Tatarsky, and especially the VIPs - Prigozhin, Kadyrov, Girkin), considering them a tool for letting off steam from the boiling cauldron of passions in his military environment. Moreover, by listening to accusations of Shoigu's ineptitude and 'thievery', the Kremlin 'strategist' is, firstly, preparing a scapegoat in case a real revolt breaks out in Russian society, and, secondly, guaranteeing he is not alone in the dock of the future tribunal. Given that Sergei Kozhugetovich is a fellow believer of Putin's 'spiritual father', oligarch Yury Kovalchuk, critical arrows against the talentless minister are indirectly aimed at the business environment, which, despite the sanctions, remains loyal to the Kremlin's most important tower.

“By listening to accusations of Shoigu's ineptitude and 'thievery', the Kremlin 'strategist' is, firstly, preparing a scapegoat in case a real revolt breaks out in Russian society, and, secondly, guaranteeing he is not alone in the dock of the future tribunal.”

However, observers note that talk of a hypothetical Russian 'Maidan' is more likely a prelude to intensifying repression and purging dissidents. The 'internal enemy' thesis, so organic to the late Putin regime, requires new arguments and, accordingly, new targets for the nagging. The political and media field of the opposition has been cleared in the best traditions of Putin's special squads in Chechnya, and 'foreign agents' are quietly fleeing Russia or have long been telling the 'truth' about what is happening in their homeland 'with Western money'. Now, apparently, the time has come for a special operation against dissenting military officers. Just as another inspirer of Putin, Iosif Dzhugashvili, did in his time.

But why 'Maidan' after all? First of all, because in the minds of average inhabitants of the Russian hinterland, the stamp of 'horror' on the main Kyiv square is firmly fixed. This stereotype has not been knocked out of the mind for decades, the propaganda 'masters of culture' have worked so hard on it.

“In the minds of the average inhabitants of the Russian hinterland, the stamp of 'horror' on the main Kyiv square is firmly fixed. This stereotype has not been knocked out of the mind for decades, the propaganda 'masters of culture' have worked so hard on it.”

Thus, the Maidan is firmly tied to another Russian nightmare - Western intervention: 'drugged oranges', 'cookies from Nuland', etc.

Russian thinkers, including Matveychev, are well aware that it is better to 'overreact', and therefore use long-standing stereotypes to manipulate public opinion.

But here's the interesting thing. The fable of the Maidan coincided with Putin's own statement that the new task of the 'special operation' is... the preservation of Russia itself. In other words, the dictator, at the level of animal instinct, feels that his policy has become an impetus for a very dangerous process, from the Kremlin's point of view. It is the West's determination to “finally resolve the Russian issue.” As cynical as it may sound, Putin himself is saying this, and he has every reason to. The bunker old man is also aware that the last chance to change the situation in his favor would be a new offensive in Ukraine. But this chance is likely to be wasted by the efforts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, equipped with American weapons, and, oddly enough, by the unpreparedness of the Russian army itself for an effective strike.

Alexander Motyl, an expert on Russia and the Soviet Union, recently predicted for Putin the fate of Ceausescu. He says that a dictator has to make one clumsy move, like the Portuguese Salazar or the Romanian tyrant, and the people will realize the insignificance of their 'leader.' And then - the Maidan.

But, in my opinion, Russia will not have a 'Maidan'. The people are too shallow, too susceptible to being decided by someone else. This is what will happen: snuffbox, rifle, add your options. Then there is a pause, a message about 'sudden death', mourning, a funeral ('Maidan'), and... the XX Congress (of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union which denounced the personality cult and dictatorship of Joseph Stalin - ed.) Renunciation, debunking of the cult, changing of the elites, confusion of the plebs.

And again, “ponies running in circles.” Makarevich (Russian musician designated as ‘foreign agent’ - ed.) is not wrong.

About the author. Ihor Hulyk, journalist, Editor-in-Chief of the Espreso.West website. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.