Has Prigozhin started his election campaign?

1. Indeed, Prigozhin has launched a presidential campaign. But there is one small 'but': he does not know that he has started this campaign. So far, all this is in the 'imagination' of his opponents.

2. Prigozhin has not been (and is not now) an opposition to Putin. He has done and is doing everything that the authorities do not forbid him to do. But unlike other political players, he has two advantages: he tells the truth (truth, as you all know, is a relative term) and he actually does something, not just talks. But I repeat: he is not an oppositionist.

“Prigozhin is beginning to run out of people and is slowly preparing to wind down his activities in Donbas (he cannot leave without a victory, so there must be guilty people). The second reason is that there are suspicions that he is not being given the opportunity to get involved in the military conflict in Sudan (he supported the head of the special forces there, and the Kremlin supports the current government).”

3. In recent weeks, there has been a certain truce between Prigozhin and the army leadership. The current breakdown of this truce is due to two things: Prigozhin is beginning to run out of people and is slowly preparing to curtail his activities in Donbas (he cannot leave without a victory, so there must be guilty people). The second reason is that there are suspicions that he is not being given the opportunity to get involved in the military conflict in Sudan (where he supported the head of the special forces, and the Kremlin supports the current government). However, this issue requires a separate, deeper study, given that Sudan may become a new hotspot in Africa with the threat of the conflict spilling over into neighboring territories.

So, what is Prigozhin's goal at this stage?

1. He wants to get out of the war in Donbas in a beautiful way and without political losses. The video with the corpses is not about these people (he ruthlessly sends a hundred of them to their deaths every day). It is about his political future. Another option is to stay in Donbas, but get access to the human resources of prisons.

“He has indeed become too big to ignore. But he is still small enough to become an independent player. That is why he is still afraid to even think about going into opposition to Putin. He will become an oppositionist only when he personally faces physical death.”

2. He is not yet thinking in terms of presidential elections in Russia, no matter how much we would like him to. For him, it is now important to maintain a high level of trust in Russian society and, at the same time, to maintain influence in Africa. New and hostile private military campaigns are being built around him, which want to take his place in the African sun.

These are the two things that make up his agenda today. It is very difficult to say what will happen next and whether he will actually have higher-level political ambitions. Although speculation on this topic is beneficial to everyone who is currently at war with Prigozhin. He has indeed become too big to ignore. But he is still small enough to become an independent player. That is why he is still afraid to even think about going into opposition to Putin. He will become an oppositionist only when he personally faces physical death.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.