First signs rise: The stakes may change soon

First, and this is clear — the long-awaited shift in Trump. It’s not just that he struck Iran’s nuclear sites. He also took a tough stance against anyone who doesn’t support his new position. For example, he harshly criticized Republican Congressman Thomas Massie, saying he would personally support Massie’s election opponent. From this, we can understand that after the strikes on Iran, Trump has abandoned the fight for the Nobel Peace Prize, which means fewer concessions in negotiations.

Second — the Russian economy. The main economic event in Russia, the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, recently took place. There, participants began openly discussing economic problems. As the director of KamAZ put it, “the situation can be described as 'Ugh.'” Speakers used words like “freeze” and “halt” and came up with many other terms to avoid saying “disaster.”

It’s clear the situation is difficult, as Putin himself said that stagnation and recession must be avoided. In this context, possible new sanctions from Trump look like a guillotine. Knowing Trump, he will definitely use this to pressure Putin.

Third — prisoner exchanges. Have you noticed that exchanges happen often now, but no one reports the numbers? That’s because, in some categories, they’re swapping everyone for everyone. And Russia is returning significantly more of Ukrainian people. Prisoner exchanges are always one of the first steps toward peace talks. It’s clear the Russians use this step to buy time and delay ceasefire talks. But the scale at which they are cooperating shows that the option for full negotiations is on the table. This is definitely connected to point 2 in this post.

Talks about a new round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are expected to begin this week. Trump will be watching closely. Also, a resolution on Iran is expected this week. Putin is also in a difficult position here. If he supports Iran in some practical way, he will openly oppose Trump. If he doesn’t, he will show weakness and signal that he needs to be pressured.

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About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, and publicist.

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