Europe is ready for a winter without Russian gas - Bloomberg

This is evidenced by Bloomberg data.

The BNEF report indicated that the region could import almost 40% more LNG during the coming winter than last year. And also increase purchases next summer by about 14% to restore lost stocks.

Therefore, despite the drop in demand due to high energy prices, these supplies are enough to cover the complete shutdown of Russian pipeline flows from October 1.

To get the extra fuel, European buyers will have to buy 90% more LNG on the spot market than they have secured under long-term contracts, further intensifying competition with Asia. That would support global gas prices, which have risen sharply since Europe tried to reduce its dependence on Russia after its biggest supplier, Russia, invaded Ukraine in late February.

"Elevated LNG spot prices will persist as Europe needs to maintain its leverage over all available LNG supplies, leaving very little for Asia," BNEF said.

China and emerging Asian markets are likely to see a decline in imports. 

BNEF's baseline scenario assumes that weather conditions will match the 10-year average. In the absence of Russian gas supplies, Europe is expected to import 40 million tonnes of LNG this winter and slightly more in the summer to replenish supplies. This will leave 12 million tons of spot volume for Asia.

However, a cold winter in North Asia could take 5.6 million tonnes out of Europe, mainly to fuel demand in Japan, and the following hot summer will see this rise to 6.9 million tonnes over the next 12 months. This scenario is likely to lead to increased price competition.

Meanwhile, more Russian LNG will go to China, where winter demand is expected to fall 16% from a year earlier.