Numerous sanctioned goods have been channeled through Turkey, and it appears that this trend will persist, albeit through altered channels. In numerous sectors, ranging from energy to tourism, negotiations are inevitable since they have limited alternatives. Nevertheless, when it comes to the so-called "grain deal," Putin is poised to further escalate the situation.
And it's not just about having large volumes of its own grain. For the Kremlin, food is the future energy source. Dependence on Russian oil and gas will gradually decrease due to the green revolution and the fight against climate change. And food will always be needed, as hundreds of millions of people cannot imagine a meal without bread.
Building a new noose, a new system of dependencies, is one of the key tasks for the Russian leadership, perhaps even number one.
In exchange for the extension of the grain deal, the Kremlin wants to get a number of public and non-public concessions, first of all, to return the entire system of services for its exports of agricultural products and fertilizers - from lifting SWIFT restrictions on Rosselkhozbank to the resumption of all insurance and transportation services.
Moreover, Moscow can still make payments through Gazprombank, which is not under sanctions, but it wants to start destroying the entire system of sanctions pressure. The new system of dependencies is not only for non-Western countries - look at the growth of fertilizer imports in Germany, where there is no cheap gas anymore, but some of the fertilizers are "dry gas." If you can't export "regular" gas, why not switch to fertilizers, which is even better. This is a far from complete list of Russian conditions, and their acceptance or rejection will mean the continuation or change of the West's strategy towards Russia. Therefore, with all due respect to Erdogan, it is unreasonable to expect him to resolve this issue. And for Putin, who is well versed in geopolitics, it was necessary to "pump up" the Turkish president for talks at the G20 summit later this week in India. I would like to believe that he failed and that the thesis of African coups due to grain shortages will not work. But the Turkish-African coalition in India may get new members and this is not the last episode.
About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.