How many combat aircraft will Russia make in 2024 and will it compensate for losses

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military expert, has analyzed the state of Russia’s military aircraft industry. 

Today, Russia produces such combat aircraft as the Su-57, Su-35, Su-34 and the Yak-130 combat trainer. Su-30 fighters are predominantly undergoing repairs and modernization, as well as the MiG-29. 

During 2022, the Russian Air and Space Forces received 29 new and modernized aircraft, namely:

- Su-57 - 6;

- Su-35 - 7;

- Su-34 - 10;

- Su-30SM - 4;

- Yak-130 - 2.

In 2023, it was possible to identify 26 new combat aircraft to be received by the Russian army:

- Su-57 - 2 (two aircraft identified, although Russian sources suggest a batch of 8 aircraft);

- Su-35 - 10;

- Su-34 - 6;

- Su-30SM - 4;

- Yak-130 - 4.

Thus, during a full-scale war, the Russian Armed Forces received up to 30 combat and combat-training aircraft annually.

But what is the situation with the transfer of combat aircraft to the Russian Air Force in 2024, or more precisely, in the first half of the year?

Transfer of aircraft to the Russian Air Force in 2024

Su-34

In the first half of 2024, the Russian Air Force received four Su-34 frontline fighter bombers, which were transferred in two batches of two aircraft each.

The Russian media regularly mentioned that the Novosibirsk Aviation Plant had transferred 163 Su-34s as of 2024, but never mentioned how many of them were directly in service.

It should be noted here that according to verified losses of Su-34s, the Russian Air Force has lost 30 aircraft of this type since 2022. According to the unverified ones - more than 60.

Recently, Russian resources have been retouching the flight and registration numbers of aircraft transferred to the Russian Air Force. Because of this, it is difficult to establish whether this is really a new batch or a previous one, which is presented as a new batch to simulate regularity of deliveries.

Su-35

In the first half of 2024, the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Y.A. Gagarin handed over four Su-35 multirole fighters (in two batches).

The first batch of two Su-35S was handed over on April 12, and the second batch on May 8. As in the case of the Su-34, the red-colored flight numbers on the aircraft were obscured.

Yak-130

On June 10, the Irkutsk Aviation Plant handed over the first batch of Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft in 2024. Taking into account the experience of previous transfers, the number did not exceed two aircraft. Of course, the flight numbers were also obscured.

Since 2020, this is the fifth batch under the contract dated August 25, 2020, under which 25 machines are to be delivered. In total, the Russian Air Force has more than 120 Yak-130 aircraft in combat-ready condition.

Su-30 and Su-57

It is noteworthy that not a single Su-30SM or Su-57 fighter aircraft was transferred to the Russian Armed Forces in the first six months of 2024.

Thus, in the first six months of 2024, the Russian forces acquired approximately 10 new combat and combat-training aircraft.

Prospects for the second half of 2024

Taking into account the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex, it is possible that in the second half of 2024 two to three batches of Su-34 and Su-35, two aircraft each, will be delivered to the troops. That is, the total number of Su-34s and Su-35s handed over in 2024 will be 8-10 of each type, which corresponds to the production capabilities of the Russian MIC in recent years - no more than a squadron per year.

In general, Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft can be delivered in another batch - two units, which would amount to four in annual terms.

The strange phenomenon with the absence of modernized Su-30SMs in the first half of the year may be related to the modernization process itself, which depends entirely on the installation of Western-made equipment. For example, the French Thales HUD 3022 windshield background indicators are from the Thales Group.

Still, the Su-57s will be delivered this year in two batches at most - that is, the delivery will amount to 2-4 aircraft.

Thus, in 2024 the Russian Air Force will receive 22 to 28 new aircraft of all types. However, manipulations with flight numbers and new airplanes in general cannot be ruled out, so even these figures are extremely relative.

Conclusions

Tactical aircraft production in Russia has been and still exists, but at a small-scale production level. These volumes do not allow Russia to fully compensate for the aviation losses it has suffered in the combat zone in Ukraine.

Over the past few years, the Russian military-industrial complex has not been able to reach a new level of production of combat aircraft, increase it or expand its nomenclature.

In fact, for the Ukrainian Defense Forces, this is the most difficult type of equipment to destroy, but it is much easier to knock it out of combat-ready condition. On the other hand, it is much more difficult for the aggressor to compensate for it, and some types of aircraft, such as the Su-25 or Su-24, cannot be compensated for at all due to lack of production.