Ending Russia-Ukraine war requires talking to Xi, not Putin — economist

This view was shared by economist Oleh Pendzyn on Espreso TV.

"I’ll probably sound strange, but in my opinion, ending the war isn’t something to discuss with Putin. This should be discussed with Xi Jinping. The problem is, Russia’s economic situation is critical. But as long as China stands behind it, Russia will keep ramping up military production to stay in the fight," said Pendzyn.

In his view, if Russia is left to face its current problems alone, its economy could collapse in a matter of months, by autumn at the latest.

"For Ukraine, support is a 2025 issue. Since 2022, as a country at war, we haven’t been able to survive without $40 billion in annual macro-financial aid. We've been living like this for years. Let me remind you, in November 2023, Budanov said at a press conference that we’re fighting on credit. And that’s deeply true. From 2023 to 2025, nothing has changed, we’re still fighting on credit. And Russia is starting to do the same from 2025," the economist said.

He added that the Foreign Minister already stated: China cannot allow Russia to lose. Once Russia has no way to cover its budget deficit and the National Welfare Fund runs dry, it will turn to China for loans.

"This is how Russia will pay for losing its economic independence. Today, Chinese products dominate the Russian market, and all dual-use goods come through China. That’s why the EU, in its 18th sanctions package, added restrictions on several Chinese banks that handle payments for parts and tech Russia needs. So we need to accept: as long as China supports Russia, it will keep fighting, and its crisis won’t become a collapse," Pendzyn summed up.

• On July 18, the EU Council approved its 18th package of sanctions against Russia.
• On July 21, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would respond to the EU’s new sanctions package, which for the first time included restrictions on Chinese banks.