Does China need Russia to win the war against Ukraine?

Unlike Orbán and Fico, who can still play between Brussels, Moscow, and Washington; unlike the Central Asian states, which can balance between Moscow and Beijing — Putin has nowhere to pivot, no one to balance. The game of a multipolar world has hit a dead end for Russia.

As predicted back in 2022, the player holding all the cards is stepping forward. China has been in the game for a while, but nearly three blood-stained years have passed. Now China has to speak, but what will it say?

China’s long-term goal is global dominance, wrapped in the phrase “Community of common destiny for mankind.” This concept, the official foreign policy doctrine of China, is built on the idea that the world faces global challenges that no one can handle alone — so it's better to face them together, under the leadership of the elder brother, the strongest and wisest. You can guess who that is.

(For context, China sees itself as the rightful leading civilization of humanity, unfairly knocked from that position over the past 200 years — and now returning to its proper place. That’s not entirely accurate: China dominated for about 1,200 years, roughly from 550 to 1750, but for the rest of the studied 15,000 years of human history, it mostly lagged behind.)

So what is China’s strategy in the Russian-Ukrainian war?

Does China want Russia to win? No. That would strengthen Russia, give it more status, and reinforce the idea that powerful countries can redraw borders by force. China doesn’t need that.

Does China want Russia to lose? Also no. That would empower the West, and Ukraine is very much part of the West. A Russian defeat could also lead to Russia breaking apart, with many regions trying to escape China’s orbit (Turkic and Mongolian peoples fear and dislike China), although some parts might happily fall into its hands.

So maybe China wants the war to drag on endlessly? Not really. That raises risks, especially with current economic slowdown.

Then what’s the best option for China? The one we have now. The war grinds on, but no one wins. The fighting continues, but both sides are burning through resources. Everyone fears escalation, the weak drift toward China, and the strong start making mistakes.

In China’s interest, Russia should be weak but aggressive; whole but completely dependent; stuck in a war that drags on but never escalates too far; China should be able to generate uncertainty for others while staying in control itself; be able to use Russia as a battering ram, while staying out of sight and collecting the benefits.

From this angle, things are going very well for China.

• Russia can’t win.
• Russia can’t stop and will keep going.
• China stays out of the war directly, but Russia can’t go on without it. China adjusts the pace as it sees fit.
• Russia has no room to maneuver, no one else to lean on.
• Russia’s allies and satellites are all drifting toward China.
• The U.S. is losing this round. Europe is uncertain.
• Everyone sees clearly who they need to talk to now.

China’s key problems:

• economic slowdown and rising unemployment;
• heavy reliance on exports;
• middle-income trap: wages are going up, but it's no longer the cheap workshop of the world;
• aging population and demographic stagnation;
• skewed gender balance;
• constant need for cheap resources.

So China’s strategy toward Russia includes:

• gradually gaining control over Russian resources — real control without political liability, via Chinese companies and joint projects;
• demographic expansion into Russian regions;
• direct political control over certain territories without military invasion through concessions, deals, and influence.

What’s in Ukraine’s interest? For Russia to collapse, and to stop serving as China’s tool — but this must happen carefully, not chaotically, and before China locks everything down.

Source

About the author. Valeriy Pekar, lecturer at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.