Espreso. Global

Russia redeploys forces from Bakhmut to Avdiivka, counterattacks continue in several directions - milirary expert Zgurets

23 December, 2023 Saturday

Russia is moving its units to the Avdiivka direction from the Bakhmut area, which indicates that it is still interested in achieving a political and military victory there. This pressure is likely to continue

Fighting around Avdiivka

In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian troops are trying to move from Vodiane to Sieverne. It is there that they are making the greatest efforts to achieve their goals.

Today, attacks are taking place from several directions. However, the situation with Russia's advance has not changed. In the north, its troops are trying in vain to continue their attacks on Stepove, where the 47th Brigade is holding the line. The equipment sent by rail with Russia's personnel is being destroyed. The situation in the industrial zone is more complicated at the Yasynuvata junction east of Avdiivka, where there was some Russian advance earlier. Now they are trying to push further, closer to Avdiivka's urban development.

The situation along the entire front line was extremely difficult, with the Russian army trying to take advantage of the accumulated manpower and equipment. 

Tavria direction 

The most difficult area is the area around Robotyne and Verbove, where counterattacks are taking place on both sides. The Russian troops are now trying to squeeze Ukraine's flanks. They counterattacked the Robotyne area from the west and east, but the situation has not changed in favor of the Russians. Such hostile actions will continue.

The 10 km penetration into Russia's defense has not changed for a long time. Therefore, they are likely to try to eliminate Ukraine's penetration in the winter, but the question is whether they will have enough forces and means. It is also important how Ukraine will build its defense in this area, rationally using its reserves. 

The situation around Krynky 

In the Krynky area, Russia has been attacking Ukraine's positions from the west and south using armored vehicles for a week. They sent it to Ukraine's positions and then landed infantry. However, due to the use of artillery and FPV drones by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they suffered significant losses

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to hold these areas. Russia will try to take actions to dislodge Ukraine's troops, but everything will depend on the resilience and ability of both sides to complete certain plans.

Attack on Crimea

On the night of December 20, the Center for Long-Range Space Communications of the Russian Aerospace Forces was attacked in the temporarily occupied Crimea. Storm Shadow missiles were used to attack these facilities.

The center is aimed at providing satellite communications and controlling outer space. This contributed to the effectiveness of the Russian nuclear forces in terms of providing data for part of the hemisphere of the planet. In fact, these facilities have been used for military purposes, and the strategic consequences for the Russian nuclear forces will be significant. 

The Ukrainian side continues its strategy and tactics related to strikes against Russia using drones and other objects that affect the combat capability of the Russian army.

Consequences for Russia after the elimination of three SU-34s

After the Ukrainian Air Force destroyed three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, Russia will be afraid to use such aircraft as before. In particular, for strikes on the right bank of the Dnipro River and on marines in the Krynky area. 

Now the situation has changed, because the Patriot system, if it was used for this operation, has a range of up to 160 kilometers with certain types of missiles. That is, Russia will be afraid to fly near the contact line in this area. 

F-16 for Ukraine

F-16 aircraft will be a significant contribution to air defense systems. Usually, in NATO countries, they are the main element of air defense, and anti-aircraft missile systems are complementary. 

However, Ukraine is demonstrating a variant where the number of foreign air defense systems is increasing and the capabilities of F-16 aircraft will be added to them. 

The Netherlands has begun preparations to deliver the first 18 F-16 multi-role fighters to Ukraine. These aircraft can have a significant impact on the situation for air defense. These aircraft can also be used to support ground operations. But this will depend on the list of weapons Ukraine receives from its partners.

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