As of the end of June 2023, the volume of Russian oil imported by the EU countries decreased from 29.2% (in 2021) to 2.3%. Likewise, the volume of imported gas saw a decrease from 38.5% to 12.9%, and coal imports dropped from 45% to 0%.
“These are fatal indicators for the Russian economy.”
Firstly, supplying all the lost volumes to either Asia or Africa is not feasible due to the absence of adequate infrastructure in these regions.
Secondly, the profitability of Russian supplies to the European market was exceptionally high, and replicating such profitability in other markets is unattainable.
Thirdly, European payments were made in euros, while Chinese and Indian payments are conducted in non-convertible currencies, which cannot be used for purchasing high-tech goods.
This doesn't imply that the Russian economy will collapse immediately, but it does suggest that such a collapse is unavoidable in the long term.
About the author: Serhiy Hromenko, journalist, security expert
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.