Civilian evacuation in Kharkiv region does not mean a threat to the Ukrainian Front, - military expert

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko shared his opinions on the matter.

According to the expert, the situation along the Lyman-Kupyansk axis remains largely unchanged. “While Russian forces have concentrated certain elite units here, they are elite not due to their superior quality in terms of equipment or capabilities, but rather because others are worse,” the expert explains.

The significant forces amassed along the R-66 line, Lyman-Svatove-Troitske, were initially intended for a February 24, 2023 offensive, which ultimately failed to materialize due to various factors, including weather, but mostly the lack of offensive functionality within the amassed force.

“Overall, nothing has changed in those six months.....For instance, the Russian forces' approach towards Borove didn't follow standard battle reconnaissance, opting instead for a swift push using their main strike groups, particularly the 12th and 13th Tank Regiments of the 4th Tank Division. The intention was to breach the established Ukrainian defense, displaying rapid progress. However, the lack of sustained resource hampered their ability to assault the Ukrainian defense lines uniformly,” the expert adds.

To bolster morale among civilians, Russia disseminated information about its control over the heavily damaged village of Novoselivske. However, the vicinity of this area has seen persistent fierce clashes, ongoing until now.

Currently, Russian propagandists are promoting celebratory news of capturing Synkivka village. Given the concentration of Russian units from the 25th and 138th Motorized Rifle Brigades in the area for this operation, this development is unsurprising. However, the claims of success in the Kupyansk direction remain unsubstantiated. Simultaneously, Russian propaganda omits the unsuccessful outcomes of the 15th, 21st, and 30th Motorized Rifle Brigades' apparent advances near Novoyehorivka, Novovodiane, and Nadia villages.

“What does all this tell us? The same what was written above - Russian forces have the best group of troops concentrated in the Luhansk region. But the best of what they have. And even in terms of their functionality, they are not capable of successfully implementing a large-scale offensive along a wide front,” says Kovalenko.

“This begs the question: why the evacuation? Because when Russian forces escalate, they resort to indiscriminate and chaotic strikes, resulting in extensive destruction.Challenges lie ahead for this beachhead in the upcoming days, weeks, and possibly months. Russian forces face tasks they likely won't achieve. Nevertheless, their failure to fulfill objectives doesn't preclude the potential for terror and massive destruction through widespread attacks on villages and settlements. The evacuation isn't due to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces won’t hold the defense, but rather the anticipation of the widespread destruction that agitated maniacs may unleash,” the expert concludes.