The confirmation of Putin's victory reinforced China's claim to settle the Taiwan issue and establish a new world order. However, the defeat suffered by Russian troops and the unprecedented unity of the West regarding sanctions came as a shock to China, as neither outcome seemed possible. The Russian army was perceived to be very powerful and invincible, while the West was considered too dependent on Russian energy sources to impose sanctions.
"Xi Jinping understands that if the Russian Federation falls, a revolution will take place, Putin will lose power, and a pro-Western government will likely take over, reducing China's influence over Russia."
Nevertheless, Putin not only failed to succeed, but he is also now at risk of complete defeat. China cannot afford to let this happen, as it is a crucial red line for them. China recognizes that Russia's situation reflects its own future, and thus it must exert influence on the current situation. Xi Jinping understands that if the Russian Federation falls, a revolution will take place, Putin will lose power, and a pro-Western government will likely take over, reducing China's influence over Russia. That is why he acted quickly to demonstrate his support for Putin and express confidence in his re-election.
On the one hand, it seems clear that Putin cannot win the conflict at hand. China recognizes this and is prepared to prevent Putin from suffering a decisive defeat, but it cannot help him secure a victory. China's peace plan aims to freeze the situation, which means that Xi has signaled to the world that he will not permit Putin to be defeated. Currently, there is no talk of China providing military assistance. The reason for this lies in China's second red line.
“It seems clear that Putin cannot win the conflict at hand. China recognizes this and is prepared to prevent Putin from suffering a decisive defeat, but it cannot help him secure a victory. China's peace plan aims to freeze the situation”
China's second red line aims to prevent a premature conflict with the West. Xi has learned from Russia's example that it is futile to rely on the West's dependence on energy resources, or in China's case, its dependence on Chinese products. Xi is not prepared for a new Cold War in which Russia would be more of a burden than a help to China. Cheap Russian resources would lose value if the West were to impose sanctions on China.
My assessment of the situation is that everything hinges on our counterattack. If it is successful but not overwhelming, then China will likely demand peace talks under the threat of intervening in the conflict. However, if the situation deteriorates into a debacle, including the return of Crimea, then China will likely take an active role in supporting the struggling Russian army.
About the author. Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.