Ceasefire like one between Iran, Israel would be major test for Ukraine

Journalist Vitaliy Portnykov said this on Espreso TV.

"When you talk about this kind of ceasefire that no one actually signed (like between Iran and Israel – ed.), what would that look like on the Russian-Ukrainian front? If Putin decides there will be a ceasefire, then Trump can come out and say: ‘That’s it. Enough of the bloodshed. Ukraine stops firing today. Russia has six hours to halt movement. The ceasefire will last 48 hours, and if it holds, it means a permanent ceasefire during which peace talks must begin,’" he said.

Portnykov said this is Trump’s idea.

"And then you keep asking: What’s next? Do we cancel martial law or not? And how can we cancel it without any deal? How do we hold elections? In this situation, Trump and others will push for them. They’ll say: ‘What’s the problem? There’s a ceasefire. The U.S. president told you there’s a ceasefire. Don’t you trust him? You don't trust him intentionally, you just don’t want to hold elections. We want you to have democracy. Cancel martial law, hold the elections,’" he added.

He thinks martial law will have to be lifted and elections announced, just like Netanyahu had to act cautiously so as not to provoke Trump.

"And a month later, Russia attacks again. Right in the middle of our election campaign. They’ll say we broke the deal somehow, shelled Donetsk or Luhansk. And then some military action begins. And Trump says: ‘How did that happen? I don’t get it, President Putin is such a nice guy, we have great relations, stop this.’ That’s possible. And in this situation, you realize, we'll face this kind of challenge," Portnykov stressed.

He says such a scenario would trigger a lot of questions.

"And what about the refugees, will they still have status or not? Will the borders open or not? Will they stay closed even without martial law? That alone would be a big disruption. But the president, who’s obviously going to run for a second term, will realize that closed borders will destroy his re-election chances. So he’ll open them. And he’ll go on TV and say that now the whole world is open for Ukrainians," he said.

According to Portnykov, many people will think it’s only temporary and will choose to leave.

"So in a month, when the new attack comes, it’ll be real ‘interesting.’ All this needs to be discussed. This kind of Iran-Israel ceasefire, if we don’t talk about it now, later they’ll say no one warned that the same or worse could happen in Ukraine. To me, that’s completely obvious. It’s even hard to explain how serious this test will be for us, if there’s a ceasefire like that," he added.

Still, the journalist says he doesn’t believe this scenario is likely.

"I really don’t understand why Putin, if he can keep terrorizing Ukraine, would agree to any ceasefire, unless Trump puts real pressure on him, not just asks him," Portnykov concluded.