China has stated that its position on Russia's war with Ukraine has not changed, although Beijing recently supported a United Nations resolution recognizing the conflict as aggression by the Russian Federation. China's decision to distance itself from recognizing Russia as the aggressor in the UN resolution, which it had unexpectedly voted for earlier, only confirms that Beijing is easily able to say one thing, do another, and plan a third.
Despite all of China's loud statements about Ukraine and the fact that Xi Jinping wants his country to be perceived as a peacemaker, Beijing actually supports only the Russian Federation. In fact, the Chinese leader wants Ukraine to be forced to cede its territory to Russia, as this would set a 'Ukrainian precedent' for him when he attacks Taiwan.
Xi Jinping believes that if Russia manages to hold on to the part of Ukraine it temporarily occupies, it opens the way for it to seize Taiwan. In fact, this is the only reason for China's imitation of a peacekeeping mission, precisely to ensure this geopolitical goal. Therefore, Beijing's peace initiative is nothing more than a smokescreen that is veiledly designed to push Kyiv to agree that Russia has the 'right' to get all the parts of Ukraine that it claims 'belong to' it. Therefore, any negotiations with Moscow in this format are not negotiations, but an outright capitulation to the Kremlin, and Ukraine's surrender of part of its land to Russia.
Xi Jinping has a peculiar understanding of Russian politics and wants to try to negotiate a 'peaceful settlement' on Moscow's terms, while publicly denying these intentions. The only thing that Beijing cannot understand is that a democratic Ukraine is ready to use all its strength and capabilities to remain an independent and free state. They will realize this when the time comes for Taiwan to fight for its right to live separately from mainland China. Unfortunately, Putin's failed experience with the invasion of Ukraine has taught nothing to the proponents of the idea of a 'greater China.'
“Putin's failed experience with the invasion of Ukraine has taught nothing to the proponents of the idea of a 'greater China'”
However, the future behavior of the People's Republic of China will largely depend on how the situation develops on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It will also take into account the extent to which China will be willing to use Russia's dependence on it. After all, Putin has voluntarily transferred Russia to the politically unseemly status of China's vassal, and decision makers in Beijing have not yet reached a final agreement on how best to use these extremely favorable circumstances to their advantage.
China is insidiously playing with Moscow, and Moscow, with its ears hanging back, hopes that it has found a reliable ally in China, who, in case of emergency, will be ready to 'cover the back' of the Russian Federation. Putin is looking for an ally and geopolitical partner where there is none and cannot be one. Throughout their many thousands of years of history, the Chinese have always had and have only one ally - China itself. This has always been the case, and under no circumstances will it ever change.
At the moment, Xi Jinping is patiently waiting to see how the situation around Ukraine develops. China can only begin to help Russia more intensively if it is fully confident that Russia will be able to hold the lands seized by the Russians. Technically, they can do more than the West to stop Iran and North Korea from directly supporting Russia. If China really wanted the Russian-Ukrainian war to end, it has enough leverage to push Russia to do so.
“China can start helping Russia more intensively only if it is fully confident that Russia will be able to hold the lands seized by the Russians.”
Xi Jinping's high-profile peace initiative will never work because it is fake. The Chinese leader's motivation for initiating this demonstrative step is to hide the fact that he is failing to lead China. The Chinese economy is in a depression and is very close to being bankrupt. And China's huge debt could very easily drag it down if it continues to confront America.
China's desire for world domination and its 'One Belt, One Road' initiative have been a complete failure. Two-thirds of the countries that have fallen for this initiative are unable to repay the trillions of dollars in loans that have been withdrawn from the Chinese economy. Its significant investments in the Russian energy sector and tacit support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine are costing China billions of yuan every day.
The de-dollarization campaign, initiated by Xi Jinping and aimed at undermining the monopoly of the US dollar and making the Chinese yuan the main reserve currency, has failed miserably. After all, who would want to rely on the yuan if the country is close to default.
And only the short-sighted leadership of the BRICS countries still cling to this extra-economic fantasy. China's attempt at hegemony in the South China Sea has backfired. Countries in the region are preparing to repel aggression. Vietnam has built its own militarized islands, and the Philippines has re-invited the US 7th Fleet to its ports and bases.
“China's attempt at hegemony in the South China Sea has backfired. Countries in the region are preparing to repel the aggression.”
But Beijing puts out fake data on China's GDP and growth potential, thinking it can fool the world that China is still a 'big market' for everything that can be sold.
For Xi Jinping, the issue of Ukraine is also important because he twice - in 2014 and 2022, after the Olympics - gave Putin the go-ahead to invade Ukraine. Obviously, after that, China would be depressed to see Ukraine winning the war.
After all, it is very symbolic (given the Taiwan issue) that the 'little' guy is defeating the 'big' guy thanks to the help of America and Europe. China does not want the United States and the West to triumph over the global evil that Russia has become today, and they initially believed that the Russian Federation could win quickly. There is ample evidence that Putin, at Xi Jinping's request, has kindly postponed the date of the invasion of Ukraine until after the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 20, 2022.
“It is very symbolic (given the Taiwan issue) that the 'little' guy is defeating the 'big' guy thanks to the help of America and Europe. China does not want the United States and the West to triumph over the global evil that Russia has become today, and they initially believed that the Russian Federation could win quickly.”
From all of this, we can draw a natural conclusion: from the very beginning, China has taken an unfriendly stance toward Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia. And the fact that it covered it up with pretty words and vague promises of possible support means absolutely nothing.
The main goal of the People's Republic of China is to promote China's interests: the dominance of the Communist Party of China at home and among Chinese citizens abroad, as well as China's dominance in Southeast and Central Asia. Its second goal is to weaken the Western alliance, among other things, by strengthening the alliance of anti-Western countries - Russia, Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela. Maintaining or restoring relations with Europe, for economic reasons, is in third place.
The European Union is now very important in China's plans to survive economically, and Beijing is eager to keep Europe as a market for its goods. As China's population has begun to decline and Western countries are considering the idea of de-globalizing their supply chains, economic growth to maintain political stability at home will become more difficult for Xi Jinping. That is why he often resorts to irrational Chinese weapons saber-rattling under the guise of trying on the role of global peacemaker.
To better understand China's position, we need to realize that China primarily sees Russia's war with Ukraine as a proxy war between Moscow and the West, particularly America. It can also see which Russian weapon systems work and which do not, as well as the limits of Russian command and control competence compared to the West.
“China, first of all, sees Russia's war with Ukraine as a proxy war between Moscow and the West, particularly the US.”
The Chinese Communists have learned a lot from this war in terms of military art. Since their own troops have not been involved in combat since the military clashes with Vietnam in the late 1970s, they still use Soviet methods of command and control and often use Russian-made weapons that are already outdated.
Beijing is clearly waiting for the time when the United States and NATO will directly intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian war, hoping that the West will not be able to wage a global war on two fronts. And at that point, Xi Jinping may decide to invade Taiwan.
Europeans may be naive and peaceful, but by now they have learned enough about Russian imperialism. And Xi Jinping's reckless support for Russia clearly indicates the brutal and totalitarian nature of China in the 'Xi Jinping era.'
But Russia will never stop its aggression in Ukraine unless it is stopped by force. The only negotiations with Putin are those based on Ukraine's victory in Crimea, Donbas, and all other Russian-occupied territories. Anything less is an illusion and a prelude to Putin's next war of aggression.
Putin has never been weaker militarily than he is today. So it's time to pluck the feathers of the two-headed imperial monster and end him forever.
About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.
The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of blogs.