Attack on Russian tanker: Ukraine seizes initiative at sea

The strike on the Russian tanker puts the grain deal in an absolute stalemate. Russia will continue to destroy our port infrastructure, and Ukraine has every chance to stop shipping in the Sea of Azov and make it as difficult as possible in the area of Novorossiysk and Crimea.

“If things continue as they are now, Putin will no longer have the option of pretending that nothing is happening. Now it is difficult to imagine that the Black Sea Fleet will make convoys for civilian ships, at least because it does not have enough forces to do so. Therefore, Putin will be forced to negotiate. There is only one way to resolve this issue: Russia stops attacking port infrastructure, and Ukraine stops attacking ships.”

But we must also be aware of one important point: this will be a multilateral agreement with demands for certain concessions (not territorial ones, but the ones I mentioned before, as well as connecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, simplifying the export of Russian grain and fertilizers).

The first round of such negotiations will be between Putin and Erdogan, and then certain agreements will be proposed at a conference in Saudi Arabia (this is not a summit of presidents, only advisors will be there to prepare for a top-level summit). And then some broader agreements are possible.

All this is to say that we need to understand that there is no quick solution to the issue. With a high degree of probability, we can say that these negotiations will continue throughout August. The main advantage is that we have seized the initiative (at least for now). And it is very important to keep this initiative.

In fact, Putin now has no chance of not making a deal. But at the same time, the Russians will certainly say that this is their victory. The main thing is that at this moment, our sofa idiots do not start howling about betrayal.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.