Ukraine faces changing support landscape: first Ramstein without U.S., rise of coalition of the willing

Content

1. Coalition of the willing: how it started

2. April 10 meeting: why is it important

3. The Ramstein format: origins and purpose

4. Why the U.S. is absent this time

5. What to expect at the upcoming Ramstein meeting

Espreso explains what is known about these two formats and what prospects in the war against Russia are opening up for Ukraine now that the U.S. is stepping down.

Coalition of the willing: how it started

The coalition of the willing is an alliance of countries that voluntarily agreed to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression and help establish peace and security after the war. This format is not an official organization with defined structures like NATO, but rather a flexible platform for coordinating actions among states that share the common goal of helping Ukraine counter Russia and ensure its future stability. The initiative involves a wide range of support, from supplying weapons to possible participation in peacekeeping operations.

The coalition of the willing emerged as a response to changes in the international situation, specifically after Donald Trump's return to the White House. The U.S., which had previously led the Ramstein format and been the main supplier of arms to Ukraine, began reducing its active involvement in the war, focusing instead on its role as a mediator in peace negotiations. This shift prompted European leaders to seek new ways to support Kyiv.

The coalition was officially announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on March 2, 2025, in London. The initiative was supported by French President Emmanuel Macron, who had previously expressed the idea of sending European troops to Ukraine. The first meeting in London gathered 18 countries, and by mid-March, during a virtual summit, their number grew to 30. The coalition included not only European states but also Commonwealth countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and some Asian partners. Meetings in Paris (March 11 and 27) and Kyiv (April 4) cemented the format as a key tool for European support to Ukraine.

Interestingly, there exists a "hidden competition for leadership" between France, the UK, and Germany within the coalition of the willing, despite public statements of cooperation, noted Ihor Todorov, a professor at Uzhhorod National University, in an interview with Espreso.

April 10 meeting: why is it important

The next meeting of the coalition of the willing will take place on April 10 in Brussels, just one day before the Ramstein meeting. It will be hosted by UK Defense Minister John Healey and French Minister for the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu at NATO headquarters. This event will mark an important step in finalizing plans to support Ukraine.

According to available information circulating in the media regarding this meeting, the main topics for discussion will include:

• Peacekeeping forces. The coalition plans to discuss in detail the possibility of deploying "deterrence forces" in Ukraine after a ceasefire. This could involve a large contingent of European troops, including forces from the UK, France, the Baltic States, and Northern Europe. The questions to be addressed include where to station these forces, their mandate, and how they would respond to potential violations by Russia. As President Zelenskyy noted, the peacekeeping forces of the coalition of the willing may appear in Ukraine once "a complete ceasefire" is in place.
• Security guarantees. Participants will also explore alternatives to the direct deployment of troops, such as strengthening the Ukrainian army or creating new deterrence mechanisms through weaponry and intelligence.
• Coordination of actions. The meeting will aim to align the positions of countries willing to send troops with those providing only logistical or financial support (e.g., Poland and Italy, which oppose sending their troops).

The goal of the meeting is to move from general declarations to the "operational phase," as stated earlier by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This means developing a concrete action plan that can be implemented in the event of a peace agreement. For Ukraine, this is an opportunity to secure clear security guarantees that will prevent Russia from repeating its aggression.

Therefore, the coalition of the willing holds significant importance for Ukraine, especially as American aid decreases. For example, it was recently announced that the U.S. is ending its presence in Poland at a key center for supplying weapons to Ukraine. As a result, the coalition of the willing could become a potential alternative to Ramstein in the future. However, as international relations expert Vadym Tryukhan noted, the coalition of the willing is currently "an important complement to Ramstein." Thus, they are effectively happening in parallel.

The Ramstein format: origins and purpose

The Ramstein meetings began on April 26, 2022, at the U.S. Air Force Base Ramstein in Germany. Officially known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, these events brought together representatives from around 50 countries, mainly NATO and EU members, as well as partners from regions like Africa and Asia. The goal was to coordinate and accelerate military aid to Ukraine to counter Russia's invasion and discuss long-term support for Kyiv.

The first meeting laid the foundation for regular gatherings, which have been held monthly, either online or in person. During this time, partners agreed to supply Ukraine with a wide range of weapons: from artillery and air defense systems to tanks, missile systems, and aircraft. Ramstein became not only a crucial platform for coordinating aid but also a significant symbol of international solidarity with Ukraine, with the U.S. playing a key role as the leader and primary donor.

Why the U.S. is absent this time

In mid-February, the first Ramstein meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels led by the United Kingdom, rather than the United States, took place. The new U.S. Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, represented the U.S. in a "listener" role and did not announce any new military commitments regarding weapon supplies. This occurred after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who immediately shifted his predecessor's policy of supporting Ukraine in pursuit of an immediate peace.

"This Ramstein marked a watershed moment between two eras: the predictable Biden policy, which guaranteed stable, albeit limited, support, and a new phase where each country must rely primarily on itself, and the role of the U.S. as an undisputed security guarantor is no longer obvious," noted diplomat Vadym Tryukhan in a comment to Ukrinform following the meeting.

As a result, European allies decided to take the lead in organizing and coordinating aid to Ukraine to ensure the continuity of support. Over the past months, many European countries have increased their military assistance to Ukraine, allocating new military packages worth billions of euros.

The upcoming Ramstein meeting, scheduled for April 11 at NATO's headquarters in Brussels, will be led by the UK and Germany, with the British Defense Minister, John Healey, taking the lead. It will be the first such meeting without any participation from the United States.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the absence of the U.S. Secretary of Defense at this Ramstein meeting "will not affect the delivery of American military equipment and intelligence to Kyiv."

"Ramstein was created to coordinate the efforts of our closest allies in supporting us and responding to our defense needs. This is an extremely important format that will continue and work towards strengthening both overall security and Ukraine's security," commented Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha regarding the U.S. withdrawal.

According to experts, President Donald Trump's administration likely withdrew from participation to maintain its "peacekeeping image." The U.S. aims to position itself as a neutral mediator between Ukraine and Russia, distancing itself from direct involvement in the war.

Of course, the absence of the U.S. at Ramstein is a challenge, as without Washington's participation, the decision-making process may slow down, particularly regarding strategic issues like the supply of long-range missiles and air defense ammunition. However, as noted by Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Europe increasingly understands that Ukraine's security is also their security, and therefore, assistance to Kyiv will only grow.

"Regarding Ramstein — earlier it focused on coordinating the increase of military equipment supplies from the U.S., but now this format is more about ramping up European weapons supplies," explains Podolyak.

What to expect at the upcoming Ramstein meeting

The agenda for Ramstein will include several key topics. First and foremost, the defense of Ukraine's skies, including the supply of air defense systems and ammunition for them, as well as expanding the Danish model, where foreign governments finance weapon production in Ukraine.

"On Friday, there will be discussions on Patriot, air defense issues, additional defense packages, and also about uniting countries that are ready to open factories or production lines for various weapons in Ukraine," said President Zelenskyy during a joint press conference with Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever on Tuesday, April 8.

The head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, Oleksandr Musiyenko, noted that this meeting will also address the search for weapons from third countries, such as when the Czech Republic found more than a million rounds of ammunition for Ukraine. Another important issue is the repair of armored vehicles and artillery.

Thus, Ramstein remains key for coordinating military assistance to Ukraine, as it has established this status over three years of operations, with mechanisms already in place even without the U.S. It's possible that if Russia refuses to reach a peace agreement, the U.S. could return to participating in Ramstein. Meanwhile, the coalition of the willing is a new, more flexible format created by Europeans, focused on specific actions, primarily related to a possible ceasefire and providing security guarantees to Ukraine – including sending peacekeeping forces.